Mechanisms underpinning the impact of climate change on natural populations

There is an urgent need to identify the key mechanisms underpinning climate change impacts on biodiversity in order to inform climate change adaptation. This project will review the scientific literature to quantify the evidence for different potential climate change impact mechanisms and appraise their relative importance. Meta-analyses will be conducted to consider how their relative importance varies between taxa, habitats and regions. Results will be reported in a scientific paper and a policy-maker summary.

This project was funded by the CCI Collaborative Fund.

 

Project Aims

The project aims to conduct a comprehensive literature review and meta-analysis of the scientific and grey literature to quantify the evidence for different potential climate change impact mechanisms and appraise their relative importance, in order to address the following questions.

  1. What are the mechanisms underpinning climate change impacts on natural populations that have the most evidence to support them? Are the mechanisms that are most frequently investigated the same as those with the most evidence?
  2. Does the importance of different mechanisms vary between taxa, and to what extent can such variation be accounted for by various ecological traits?
  3. Does the importance of different mechanisms vary geographically and between habitats?

This information will be used to develop a matrix of species groups and environments in order to highlight which impacts are likely to be most important in particular circumstances. Meta-analyses will be conducted to consider how their relative importance varies between taxa, habitats and regions. Results will be reported in a paper aimed at a high-impact journal and a policy-maker summary; they are intended to serve the IPCC’s upcoming 5th Assessment Report and to inform conservation adaptation management.

 

Key Activities

  • Regular meetings over the course of the project to discuss how to approach the systematic review, and which elements of it will be led by each CCI partner.
Project Overview
  • Funded Projects

  • Biodiversity and climate change

  • 01/09/2011

  • Complete

Project Lead
Dr James Pearce-Higgins

Dr James Pearce-Higgins

Director of Science, BTO

Project Team

Dr Rosamunde Almond

Dr Rosamunde Almond

Executive Secretary for the Cambridge Forum for Sustainability and the Environment

Dr Richard Bradbury

Dr Richard Bradbury

Head of People Conservation Science, RSPB

Professor Bill Sutherland

Professor Bill Sutherland

Former member of CCI Council, Director of Research, Conservation Science Group, Zoology Department, University of Cambridge

Professor Rhys Green

Professor Rhys Green

Principal Research Biologist, RSPB/Honorary Professor of Conservation Science in the Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology

Dr Stuart Butchart

Dr Stuart Butchart

Chief Scientist, BirdLife International

Nancy Ockendon

Nancy Ockendon

Science Manager, Endangered Landscapes & Seascapes Programme

Dr Georgina Magin

Dr Georgina Magin

Senior Programme Manager, Fauna & Flora International

Wendy Foden

Wendy Foden

Senior Researcher, University of Stellenbosch

Dr Nathalie Doswald

Dr Nathalie Doswald

Programme Officer, Climate Change and Biodiversity, UNEP-WCMC

Dr Ed Tanner

Dr Ed Tanner

Senior Lecturer, Department of Plant Sciences

CCI Partners Involved