Early January 2015. The new year stretches ahead, full of time and potential – and questions. What might be the threats and opportunities the biodiversity conservation sector will be facing in the medium- to long-term that it currently knows little, or even nothing, about? Conservationists, busy grappling with the myriad issues that have an impact on biodiversity at the present time, can struggle to find the time to look up from the coalface to identify the major conservation issues of the future. This leaves society at risk of being confronted by unexpected social, technological, or natural changes, with the concomitant requirement to develop policy and technological responses in a reactive manner. Happily for time-pressed conservationists, policy-makers and researchers everywhere, a group of individuals from across the CCI partnership and beyond have just published the results of a horizon scanning exercise to identify exactly these sorts of topics.
This is the sixth consecutive year that the Cambridge Conservation Initiative has held a horizon scanning exercise to identify issues with the potential to have significant effects on the global environment that are not currently well known or well understood. Previous horizon scanning exercises have identified a broad range of topics, from the potential environmental effects of nanosilver to the rapid rise in global demand for coconut water. The main purpose of the horizon scans conducted by CCI is to alert policymakers and researchers to possible future environmental or conservation issues, thus enabling them to prepare their policy responses or begin preliminary research.
As in previous years Professor Bill Sutherland led the horizon scanning workshop, which was attended by professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist. Each of the 18 participants proposed and described at least two topics, either alone or following consultation with others, that met the criteria of global relevance and limited awareness within the conservation community. In total, 270 individuals were consulted in the identification of 83 topics, which then were circulated to the core participants. Fifteen priority topics were subsequently identified by the participants at a meeting in Cambridge in September 2014.
Topics identified this year range widely. They include:
• compounds that disrupt the capacity of insects to sense airborne compounds, which have the potential to reduce agricultural use of broad-spectrum insecticides but may have substantial biological effects given many insects’ reliance on olfactory cues
• the legalisation of recreational drugs, which may have diverse environmental effects ranging from reductions in the power of drug cartels to monopolise access to natural resources through to increases in energy use from increased indoor production of cannabis
• the new free-trade agreement, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, currently being negotiated by the United States and the European Union, which, under certain conditions, allows foreign investors to initiate claims against a government for profits lost as a result of legal or regulatory changes, including those concerning the environment or public health
Speaking on behalf of those involved in this, and previous, CCI horizon scans, Bill Sutherland said, ‘We are pleased by the interest shown by researchers, policy makers and practitioners in these annual horizon scans, and delighted by the previous success in identifying issues on the horizon that have since become accepted conservation problems’.
